potentially growing economic disparities tied to education levels, threatening to create a two-tiered society.inequities across generations, such as the "digital divide," which could affect adult employment and training needs.population, which seems destined to reorder budget priorities and divert resources from education systems In the United States, a distinctive set of factors foreshadows important changes. Of course, fertility declines do not always translate into economic gains, as the economic stagnation in Russia demonstrates. The East Asian economic "miracle" in the latter half of the 20th century attests to this. Both of the latter developments can produce powerful economic benefits for countries if adequate education and economic opportunities are available. A fall in fertility and family size also means that more women are available to hold a wider range of jobs. Another implication is that populations with a greater share of workers can respond more successfully to policies aimed at spurring economic development. China and India, for example, the world's two largest nations, are becoming more consumption-oriented. One important economic implication of this change is the emergence of large-scale consumerism and commercial markets in developing countries. Although this change occurs gradually, the effects can be long-lasting and profound. Over time, falling fertility rates mean that populations will have a greater share of adults and a smaller share of children. One consequence is a changing age structure. The global trend toward fewer children per family has heralded significant economic and social transformations. Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East are the only major regions of the world where average fertility rates and family sizes have not fallen dramatically. Though birth rates in many parts of the developing world remain higher than in the industrial world-and populations have continued to grow-the decline in birth rates has generally been faster and steeper than that which occurred earlier in the United States. Recently, many developing countries, including Mexico, China, and India, have undergone a similar transition. Fertility decreases in many other industrialized countries were even more pronounced. Contextsīetween 19, fertility rates in the United States dropped from 3.7 children per woman to 1.9 they have risen slightly since then to around 2.0. For example, the emergence of an increasingly prosperous middle class in India and elsewhere could create substantial new markets for U.S. Morrison concludes that the main challenges are likely to include coping with a reduced workforce and growing elderly population, reducing inequalities and barriers to opportunity, and balancing the competing needs of different generations and ethnic groups. In A Demographic Perspective on Our Nation's Future, a documented briefing from RAND's Population Matters program, demographer Peter Morrison examines current population trends worldwide and in the United States, discusses implications for the United States, and explores public policy challenges these trends now pose. Meanwhile, a large influx of immigrants and relatively higher birth rates among the Hispanic population are changing America's ethnic composition, pointing toward a time when no single group can claim ethnic-majority status. Birth rates have declined, average family size has fallen, and people are living longer. The United States is experiencing fundamental demographic shifts.
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